Math and Politics

By:  Darrell W. Fuller, PLSO Lobbyist

This is for people who like politics or math, or both.  If this is not you, then it is possible you will stop reading before the end.  But that’s okay.  For the rest of you, stay with me.

 

Today’s important numbers will be 60, 31, 30, 16, 76, 11 and 1. 

 

The Oregon House of Representatives has 60 members who each serve a two-year term.  To be in the majority, you need…wait for it…31 members (half of 60 plus one).  It’s math, but not quantum algebra.  Since all 60 seats are up for re-election every two years, we have NO IDEA who’s going to be in charge, right?  Well, wrong.

 

Of those 60 House members, 26 are running for re-election and no one is running against them.  So, they have a pretty good chance of winning.  Of the 26, 17 are Democrats and 9 are Republicans.  So, already the count is 17 to 9 in favor of the Democrats and no one has voted yet.

 

Now, let’s be candid:  If you are a Democrat running in Portland, or a Republican running in Eastern or Southern Oregon, it doesn’t really matter if you have an opponent.  We just know that certain seats are “safe” seats for each party.  So, in addition to the races with no opponent at all, there are 13 safe Republican seats and 13 safe Democratic seats.

 

Add them to the uncontested races and the count is 30 Democrats and 22 Republicans.  Remember, you need 31 votes to be in the majority.  So, before anyone opens their ballot and casts a vote, the Democrats are only one seat shy of a majority.

 

That leaves only 8 races out of 60 that will really determine who will be in the majority in the House come January, 2015.  And, the Republicans have to win all 8 just to get a 30-30 tie.  These races will get a LOT of money and a LOT of attention. 

 

We’ve covered numbers 60 and 31. Let’s move on.

 

The Oregon State Senate is a little trickier.  There are 30 Senators.  They each serve a four-year term.  Their elections are staggered so about half of the Senators are up for re-election every two years.  The other half will return to the Capitol in January without an election.  In the Senate, it takes 16 members to have a majority.  Among Senators NOT up for re-election, there are 6 Democrats and 8 Republicans.  So, the Republican Party, in theory, already has a two-seat edge.

 

Of the Senators up for re-election, only 5 are Republicans while 10 are Democrats (one Republican isn’t running for re-election).  So, the Democrat Party has more territory to defend (but a lot of those 10 seats are in Portland).

 

Like in the House, some of the Senators are unopposed and some have only “token” opposition since they are in safe seats.  Republicans have 1 unopposed and 4 more in safe seats.  Democrats have 4 unopposed and 4 more in safe seats.  Add these numbers to the incumbents who are not up for re-election and -- without a single vote cast -- we already know the numbers in the Senate are 14 Democrats and 13 Republicans.  Pretty close.

 

This leaves only 3 Senate seats that are really up for grabs.

 

So, with 60 House seats and 16 Senate seats up for election in November (76 races total), you and I already know which party is going to win 65 of them.  That leaves 11 in the balance (3 in the Senate and 8 in the House).  11 seats are all that really matter in November and a lot is riding on who wins those 11 seats.

 

That leaves only one number left.  1.  When the Legislature passes a bill, 1 person has a super-vote.  1 person can sign that bill into law or veto it.  That 1 person is the Governor and he is up for re-election, too.

 

Thus ends today’s lesson.  It may be politics, but in the end, it’s all about the math.